by The big news in baseball Thursday night was that the Yankees added lefty Carlos Rodón to their rotation on a six-year, $162 million contract. After keeping Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo, the next big box to check this offseason for Brian Cashman’s front office was adding a big arm to the rotation and he’s done it.
The Yankees now have a five-man rotation with a very high upside, but there are questions all over the place. Let’s dive.
Bright side: We’ve all seen it. Cole is arguably the best pitcher in baseball who hasn’t (yet?) won a Cy Young. He finished second in the voting twice and has four top-five finishes. He led the majors twice in strikeouts and led the AL with a 2.50 ERA in 2019. Every day he gets the ball, he’s able to lead his team with a dominant outing. He’s an ace, easily.
The question: To be a dominant pitcher, why does he give up so many home runs? He led the AL in 33 homers allowed last season. He has allowed a home run in all three of his playoff starts and, in fact, has given up at least one home run in his last nine playoff games dating back to 2019. The long ball problem was the main culprit for his inconsistency last season, pitching overall with a 3.50 ERA (111 ERA+, his worst since leaving Pittsburgh by a wide margin).
Carlos Rodón
Bright side: Over the past two seasons, Rodón has made 55 starts and is 27-13 with a 2.67 ERA (157 ERA+), . 998 WHIP and 422 strikeouts against 87 catches in 310 2/3 innings. By rates, he was one of baseball’s best and most dominant pitchers. He’s a lefty ace to stay up next to righty Cole!
Oh, and here’s a good stat: Last season, in fastball fourseam huffing speed (with as many as 1,000 pitches), Cole was No. 1 and Rodón was No. 2 in all of baseball. The Yankees have the heat.
The question: Rodón dealt with shoulder injuries in 2016 and 2021 and underwent Tommy John surgery in the process. That means he has started 12, 20, 7 and 2 games per season respectively since 2017-20. In 2021, it looked like his career year, but he managed just 23 innings in five starts after Aug. 7. As noted, the shoulder injury was a concern. Even making 31 starts last season, he averaged just 5 2/3 innings per start, adding up to 178 on the season. That was the high point of his career.
Will he be able to stay on the mound all season, and if he does, will he still be fully booked for the playoffs? Or will he wear out in October and falter when the Yankees need him most?
Bright side: We just saw it! Nasty Nestor was one of the breakout stars of 2022, making the All-Star team and finishing eighth in AL Cy Young voting. He is able to resemble an ace in formation two or even three times. If he was ranked third in a playoff rotation, it would be reasonable to expect him to lead or even lead out a good number of times.
The question: Is it repeatable?
Cortes has never been much publicized. The Yankees lost him in the Rule 5 draft to the Orioles and then the Orioles gave him back the following April. Then he was traded to the Mariners for “future considerations,” reached minor league free agency, and re-signed with the Yankees. He started 2021 in the minors.
Started full-time last year, but was 28 starts and 158 1/3 innings. Even in the middle of the season he went through a difficult moment. It’s good that he’s only three instead of being considered an ace, but there still needs to be some level of concern that 2022 will end up being a volatile season for the southpaw.
Bright side: The two-time All-Star had third and ninth place in Cy Young voting to his credit. In those two seasons, he was 33-14 with a 3.18 ERA (137 ERA+), 1.09 WHIP and 450 strikeouts in 384 2/3 innings. He showed a lot of that lead last season too, when he was 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA (123 ERA+), 1.00 WHIP and 112 strikeouts in 102 innings. He looked like the old self of him when he was on the mound.
The question: Again, it stays on the mound. Those ace-level seasons were 2017-18. He made just three appearances in 2019, zero in 2020 and appeared in four games in relief in 2021. Last year he was absent between 13 July and 21 September. Arm problems hampered much of his career, including shoulder problems and then Tommy John surgery, the latter of which came with several setbacks during his rehabilitation. Last year, he was a lat strain.
It can be great when it throws. He also has zero 200-inning seasons and just two more than his 102 last season, with the most recent being 2018. There has to be concern about getting him through the full season and then, if he does, how well’ d hold out for a potential deep playoff series.
Bright side: The fifth-of-five man on this list showing Ace to the Up, Montas looked like a Cy Young candidate in 2019. Through 16 starts, he was 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA (164 ERA+), 1.12 WHIP and 103 strikeouts in 96 innings. In 2021, Montas finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting with a strong all-around season (3.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 207 K, 187 IP, 3.6 WAR). Last year before being traded to the Yankees, he had a 3.18 ERA with 109 strikeouts in 104 2/3 innings.
The questions: That 2019 season mentioned above? Yes, he stopped abruptly because he was suspended for a PED violation. Then he was bad in 2020.
In eight starts for the Yankees after the trade last season, he had a 6.35 ERA. It’s only been 6 2/3 innings, but he has a brutal 9.45 playoff ERA.
At the very least here, we’re dealing with inconsistency, plus a shoulder injury last season.
When he’s good, he’s great, but the resume is littered with landmines. Which release do the 2023 Yankees get most of the season? How about when it matters the most?
In all, the Yankees have a spin that’s capable, when things are buzzing in the sky, of looking like five aces. It’s also not hard to see stretches where they have multiple rotation members on the injured list while at least one other is struggling to keep runs off the board. It could be a roller coaster season with this group. Most roller coasters are fun, though, and there’s enough upside here to believe this is going to be one of the best spins in baseball.
The Yankees haven’t won the AL pennant since 2009 and that’s ages for this franchise. They have made it to the ALCS three times in the last six seasons and have been shutout by the Houston Astros all three times. The defending World Series champions will have a very strong rotation next season, but they lost Cy Young winner Justin Verlander to free agency as the Yankees brought in someone who can push for a Cy Young award. Now they aim to overthrow their nemesis and finally return to the World Series. They have the upward rotation to get the job done, but will have to answer a lot of questions in the process.
